Humans Can Live to Be 130 Years of Age and Even Longer a New Statistical Analysis Shows

Mankind has always been looking for the elusive fountain of youth in the hope of attaining immortality. According to a new study, man could easily live to be 130 years old not quite immortality but nonetheless a long lifespan. Indeed as a result of the new advances in medicine, it would not be shocking if we start to see more and more supercentenarians in this century.

Jeanne Calment

Jeanne Calment a Supercentenarian

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Humans could probably live to 130 years of age or even longer, although the possibility of this is still very small, according to a recently published study. The maximum human lifespan remains a matter of debate, with recent studies putting it at 150 years, while others rule out the same limit. The study, published in the Royal Society Open Science journal, adds its own twist by looking at new data on supercentenarians – those aged 110 or older – and those aged just 105 and older.

While the risk of death normally increases with age, the researchers’ analysis concluded that the risk of death reaches a plateau with a 50 percent probability of death at a very advanced age. Beyond the age of 110, the probability of living another year is comparable to flipping a coin,” explains Anthony Davison, professor of statistics at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne, Switzerland, and author of the study. If the coin lands on the head side, you will celebrate another birthday, if not, you will be dead within a year.

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Based on the available data, it seems likely that people can live up to 130 years, but extrapolating from this “would mean that there is no limit to human lifespan,” says the study. These results are consistent with similar statistical analyses of data on very old people. But Davison says the study “confirms and refines” them using new data.

The number of supercentenarians will increase

His research team studied new information from the International Database on Longevity (IDL) on more than 1,100 supercentenarians from 13 countries. They also used data from Italy, which included all individuals who were at least 105 years old between January 2009 and December 2015. Davis defended the method of their study, which uses extrapolation of existing data rather than medical criteria.

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“All studies of extreme old age, whether statistical or medical, involve extrapolation,” he said. “We were able to show that if there was an age limit below 130, we should have found it based on the available data. But even if there is no limit, the chances of reaching or exceeding 130 are still very small.”

According to calculations, the chances of a 110-year-old reaching the age of 130 are, according to Davison, “about one in a million…not impossible, but very unlikely.” He believes that humanity will witness such a feat in this century, as the number of supercentenarians keeps growing which increases the likelihood that someone will reach 130.

“But in the absence of significant medical and social advances, it is unlikely that we will ever see a much higher age,” he says. The oldest person to date is Jeanne Calment of France, who died in 1997 at the age of 122.

« Mais en l’absence d’avancées médicales et sociales majeures, atteignant un âge bien au-delà, a peu de chance de ne jamais être observé », selon lui. À ce jour, la plus vieille personne enregistrée reste la Française Jeanne Calment, morte en 1997 à l’âge de 122 ans. Un chiffré contesté par certains, puis confirmé par de nombreux experts en 2019.

The pretenders to the throne still have few years to go to break the record f 122 years of age.  A 118-year-old Japanese woman, by the name of Kane Tanaka is currently the oldest living person in the world.

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References

Human mortality at extreme age

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