Duke University Study Predicts That the Next Global Pandemic Could Occur within 59 Years

Pandemics are not that rare as it appears. Using a probabilistic model similar to the one used for natural disasters, a team of scientists at Duke University has studied how often pandemics occur in relation to their severity.

Patients Spanish Flu

Patients Spanish Flu

The current pandemic may seem extraordinary, but pandemics are actually not that rare. The last flu was the H1N1 flu in 2009, which killed between 151,700 and 575,400 people worldwide. But with nearly 4.5 million deaths, Covid-19 is the most severe pandemic since the Spanish flu of 1918, which killed between 20 and 50 million people.

Read Also: University of Arizona: The Hypotheses on the Origin of the US Coronavirus Epidemic Challenged

Researchers at Duke University have calculated the likelihood that such an event will occur again in the next few years.

One Covid 19-like epidemic every 59 years.

They counted all major pandemics since 1600 that killed more than 10,000 people, excluding diseases that are still endemic, such as AIDS or malaria, and diseases that became curable with a vaccine or antibiotics. They then applied a probabilistic model similar to the one used to calculate the frequency of extreme weather events.

According to the model, the probability of a Covid 19-like pandemic occurring in a given year is 2%, which means that we will experience a new pandemic within 59 years. This does not mean that the next pandemic will occur in 59 years,” warns Gabriel Katul, co-author of the study published in PNAS. If we talk about a 100-year flood, for example, it’s possible that several will occur within 100 years.

A pandemic like the Spanish flu every 400 years

The probability of a Comparing COVID-19 to the 1918 Spanish Flu is estimated to be between 0.3% and 1.9% in a given year, or one pandemic every 400 years. However, this estimate may still be too optimistic, the authors suggest. Indeed, the model shows that the occurrence or recurrence of epidemics has tended to increase in recent decades. Taking this acceleration into account, the probability is multiplied by three, i.e., one Spanish flu-type pandemic every 127 years.

Read Also: Is There A Link Between Pandemics and Climate Change?

It may seem strange to observe such an acceleration when we have made considerable progress in disease prevention, epidemic surveillance, and hygiene. Researchers cite deteriorating environmental conditions, more frequent contact between humans and animals that can transmit pathogens, lack of health infrastructure in some countries, and lack of cooperation among nations as possible explanations.

Humanity wiped off the planet Within 12,000 years

“The basic message of our study is that the occurrence of the next pandemic is very likely in the coming years,” says William Pan, associate professor of health and environment at Duke University. So it’s important to develop ways to monitor and control them when they do occur. We also need to learn which response measures are useful and which are not, such as the widespread use of masks or lockdowns.

Could a major pandemic wipe humanity off the face of the earth? This question was not addressed in the paper, but the researchers applied their model to this hypothesis. The result: a pandemic that would wipe out all humans could occur within the next 12,000 years. By then, we could have already been wiped out by a volcanic super-eruption, an asteroid, or global warming.

Read Also: Global Food Security: Climate Change Is Likely to Cause More Plant Diseases Which Will Affect Crop Yield

References

Intensity and frequency of extreme novel epidemics

Articles you may like:

Police Recruitment Poor Standards: Physically Unfit Cops Are More Likely to Use Lethal Force

The Reasons Why Israel a Highly Vaccinated Country Has One of the Highest Infection Rates in the World

Is the Convenience of Using Toilet Paper Worth the Negative Impact They May Have On Your Health?

Chronic Pain Can Lead To Anxiety and Depression According to NeuRA Study

Chaga Mushrooms Health benefits: What does the science say?

Brain Health: Sleep Deprivation Negatively Affects Memory Study Shows

Giving Employees the Possibility to Take a 30 Minute Nap Improves Productivity

Global Food Security: Climate Change Is Likely to Cause More Plant Diseases Which Will Affect Crop Yield

Self Improvement: When Positive Thinking Becomes Unconducive to Success and Happiness

Vaccination rates below 90% Could Paradoxically Promote the Emergence of Resistant Variants

Nightmare Scenario: Could the Current Poorly Implemented Vaccination Campaign Lead to More Deadly SARS-CoV-2 Strains

Drinking Too Much Coffee Can Reduce Brain Size, and Cause Dementia

Possible Causes of the Sudden Fall In COVID-19 Infections in the UK and Europe

SARS-CoV-2 Transmissibility: Can You Really Catch COVID-19 through Flatulence (Farts)?

Moderna and Pfizer’s mRNA Vaccines Do Not Make Straight Men Gay

Researchers to Start Testing Male Contraceptive Gel

Gilmore Health News

Coronavirus: The Real and False Side Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines

Guillain-Barré Syndrome Observed after the First Dose of the AstraZeneca Vaccine

Sponsored:

Genf20 Plus

Growth Factor Plus Reviews

FEEDBACK:

Conversation

Want to Stay Informed?

Join the Gilmore Health News Newsletter!

Want to live your best life?

Get the Gilmore Health Weekly newsletter for health tips, wellness updates and more.

By clicking "Subscribe," I agree to the Gilmore Health and . I also agree to receive emails from Gilmore Health and I understand that I may opt out of Gilmore Health subscriptions at any time.